A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
